Unplug your clothes dryer, courtesy of the weather

If some scientists' predictions that the West will get drier due to global warming are true, this year is shaping up to be one that affirms those slippery causal connections.

Various statistics and comparisons with previous years are showing this year to be really dry and hot, like the warmest combined April and May on record. Fortunately, reservoirs in some parts of the state are in good condition.

Meanwhile, dry farmed wheat production this year will be half of average, at about 50 million bushels. The average is 100 million. One farmer speculates that Colorado is in a 23 year drought cycle. No quote on when it started and when it will end.

The Rocky covers a new forecast from the Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center that ups the fire danger ante. Some reasons for the heat and dry conditions:

•“Weak” to “Moderate” La Niña conditions were declared in the eastern tropical pacific by late fall/early winter. The fall/winter precipitation patterns of 2005/2006 in the Rocky Mountain Area were similar to past La Niña events. Though there are some lingering atmospheric features from this year’s La Niña, current El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and forecasted indices suggest neutral conditions through the end of 2006. Therefore, ENSO is expected to have little if any impact on the RMA climate during the summer of 2006.

• The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (defined by the difference between high pressure from the eastern sea board into south-central Europe versus low pressure over Iceland) was negative during the winter months of 2006. Composite anomalies of spring and summer temperature, RH, and precipitation rates during past negative NAO events paint a very bleak (hot and dry) picture for portions of the Rocky Mountain Area this summer, especially over Colorado, Wyoming and the Black Hills.

Steve Jones, well known Boulder naturalist combined these figures, as posted on the Boulder County Nature Association Listserv nature-net

This was the 12th driest spring (March-May) in Boulder since 1895, and the
driest spring since 1974. Significantly, it was the driest spring recorded
since the weather station was moved to the new location (NIST), slightly
closer to the foothills, in 1989. I moved to Boulder in 1970, so I remember
springs like this one (see 1972 and 1974) when the grass turned brown before
the end of May, but it's been a long time since that happened, so it's
somewhat of a shock. Steve

Year March April May Total

1925 0.35 0.25 1.61 2.21

1966 0.31 1.21 0.80 2.32

1954 1.16 0.83 1.33 3.32

1963 1.81 0.15 1.37 3.33

1972 0.68 1.52 1.22 3.42

1962 0.48 0.99 1.99 3.46

1919 1.49 1.65 0.88 4.02

1930 0.88 0.99 2.17 4.04

1913 0.71 1.58 1.85 4.14

1911 0.64 2.68 0.90 4.22

1974 1.22 3.07 trace 4.29

2006 2.08 1.04 1.18 4.30

Notice we're not at dust bowl levels yet.